Updated on Monday 11 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 80757 (+725) 1366760 (+19757) 255654 (+18461) 1030349 (+571)
United Kingdom 31855 (+268) 219183 (+3923) 0 (+0) 187328 (+3655)
Italy 30560 (+165) 219070 (+802) 105186 (+2155) 83324 (-1518)
Spain 26621 (+143) 264663 (+1880) 176439 (+3282) 61603 (-1545)
France 26380 (+70) 176970 (+312) 56217 (+179) 94373 (+63)
Brazil 11123 (+467) 162699 (+6638) 64957 (+3272) 86619 (+2899)
Belgium 8656 (+75) 53081 (+485) 13642 (+231) 30783 (+179)
Germany 7569 (+20) 171879 (+555) 144400 (+1100) 19910 (-565)
Iran 6640 (+51) 107603 (+1383) 86143 (+1079) 14820 (+253)
Netherlands 5440 (+18) 42627 (+245) 0 (+0) 37187 (+227)
Canada 4870 (+177) 68848 (+1146) 32096 (+847) 31882 (+122)
China 4633 (+0) 82901 (+14) 78120 (+74) 148 (-60)
Turkey 3786 (+47) 138657 (+1542) 92691 (+3211) 42180 (-1716)
Mexico 3353 (+193) 33460 (+1938) 21824 (+1510) 8283 (+235)
Sweden 3225 (+5) 26322 (+401) 4971 (+0) 18126 (+396)
India 2212 (+111) 67161 (+4353) 20969 (+1668) 43980 (+2574)
Ecuador 2127 (+410) 29559 (+488) 3433 (+0) 23999 (+78)
Russia 1915 (+88) 209688 (+11012) 34306 (+2390) 173467 (+8534)
Peru 1889 (+75) 67307 (+2292) 21349 (+1103) 44069 (+1114)
Switzerland 1833 (+3) 30305 (+54) 26600 (+200) 1872 (-149)
Ireland 1458 (+12) 22996 (+236) 17110 (+0) 4428 (+224)
Portugal 1135 (+9) 27581 (+175) 2549 (+50) 23897 (+116)
Indonesia 973 (+14) 14032 (+387) 2698 (+91) 10361 (+282)
Romania 961 (+22) 15362 (+231) 7051 (+139) 7350 (+70)
Poland 800 (+15) 15996 (+345) 5698 (+261) 9498 (+69)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 279053 (+3486) 4094214 (+79244) 1408770 (+52874)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 271355 ( +2273) 3919181 ( +38453) 1390775 ( +31638)
Tue 12 May 2020 273432 ( +2078) 3954954 ( +35773) 1420899 ( +30124)
Wed 13 May 2020 275329 ( +1896) 3988185 ( +33231) 1449492 ( +28594)
Thu 14 May 2020 277057 ( +1729) 4019011 ( +30826) 1476554 ( +27062)
Fri 15 May 2020 278631 ( +1574) 4047570 ( +28559) 1502095 ( +25541)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82901 (+14) 78120 (+74)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 4180 ( +2) 82961 ( +5) 77118 ( +1)
Tue 12 May 2020 4182 ( +2) 82965 ( +4) 77119 ( +1)
Wed 13 May 2020 4184 ( +2) 82969 ( +4) 77119 ( +0)
Thu 14 May 2020 4185 ( +2) 82972 ( +3) 77120 ( +0)
Fri 15 May 2020 4186 ( +1) 82975 ( +3) 77120 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 26621 (+143) 264663 (+1880) 176439 (+3282)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 26473 ( +96) 250209 ( +531) 172121 ( +1150)
Tue 12 May 2020 26558 ( +85) 250684 ( +475) 173040 ( +919)
Wed 13 May 2020 26634 ( +76) 251109 ( +425) 173771 ( +731)
Thu 14 May 2020 26702 ( +68) 251489 ( +380) 174351 ( +580)
Fri 15 May 2020 26762 ( +60) 251829 ( +340) 174809 ( +458)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 30560 (+165) 219070 (+802) 105186 (+2155)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 30419 ( +126) 218571 ( +692) 103856 ( +2210)
Tue 12 May 2020 30534 ( +114) 219199 ( +628) 105990 ( +2134)
Wed 13 May 2020 30638 ( +104) 219769 ( +570) 108046 ( +2056)
Thu 14 May 2020 30731 ( +94) 220286 ( +516) 110023 ( +1976)
Fri 15 May 2020 30816 ( +85) 220753 ( +468) 111919 ( +1896)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 31855 (+268) 219183 (+3923) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 31492 ( +104) 210801 ( +1973) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 31568 ( +77) 212608 ( +1806) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 31625 ( +56) 214259 ( +1651) nan ( +nan)
Thu 14 May 2020 31666 ( +41) 215766 ( +1507) nan ( +nan)
Fri 15 May 2020 31696 ( +30) 217140 ( +1374) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 80757 (+725) 1366760 (+19757) 255654 (+18461)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 80809 ( +1121) 1352527 ( +15955) 258531 ( +10147)
Tue 12 May 2020 81864 ( +1055) 1367467 ( +14941) 268683 ( +10152)
Wed 13 May 2020 82856 ( +992) 1381434 ( +13967) 278820 ( +10137)
Thu 14 May 2020 83787 ( +931) 1394469 ( +13035) 288923 ( +10103)
Fri 15 May 2020 84660 ( +873) 1406617 ( +12148) 298974 ( +10051)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 26380 (+70) 176970 (+312) 56217 (+179)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 26321 ( +91) 170135 ( +67) 56528 ( +500)
Tue 12 May 2020 26401 ( +80) 170191 ( +57) 57000 ( +471)
Wed 13 May 2020 26472 ( +71) 170239 ( +48) 57444 ( +444)
Thu 14 May 2020 26534 ( +62) 170280 ( +41) 57861 ( +418)
Fri 15 May 2020 26589 ( +55) 170314 ( +34) 58254 ( +393)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 7569 (+20) 171879 (+555) 144400 (+1100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 7624 ( +66) 170836 ( +386) 144967 ( +1151)
Tue 12 May 2020 7685 ( +61) 171181 ( +344) 145995 ( +1028)
Wed 13 May 2020 7741 ( +57) 171488 ( +307) 146909 ( +914)
Thu 14 May 2020 7794 ( +53) 171762 ( +274) 147721 ( +811)
Fri 15 May 2020 7843 ( +49) 172005 ( +244) 148438 ( +718)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 5440 (+18) 42627 (+245) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 5413 ( +29) 42208 ( +122) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 5439 ( +26) 42316 ( +108) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 5462 ( +23) 42412 ( +96) nan ( +nan)
Thu 14 May 2020 5483 ( +21) 42497 ( +85) nan ( +nan)
Fri 15 May 2020 5501 ( +18) 42572 ( +75) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 8656 (+75) 53081 (+485) 13642 (+231)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 8716 ( +77) 51745 ( +154) 13500 ( +104)
Tue 12 May 2020 8787 ( +71) 51881 ( +137) 13594 ( +93)
Wed 13 May 2020 8852 ( +65) 52003 ( +122) 13678 ( +84)
Thu 14 May 2020 8911 ( +59) 52111 ( +108) 13752 ( +75)
Fri 15 May 2020 8965 ( +54) 52207 ( +96) 13819 ( +67)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 3225 (+5) 26322 (+401) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 3250 ( +49) 26561 ( +468) 6048 ( +432)
Tue 12 May 2020 3297 ( +47) 27018 ( +457) 6449 ( +401)
Wed 13 May 2020 3341 ( +44) 27463 ( +446) 6815 ( +366)
Thu 14 May 2020 3383 ( +42) 27897 ( +434) 7143 ( +328)
Fri 15 May 2020 3423 ( +40) 28320 ( +423) 7432 ( +289)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 800 (+15) 15996 (+345) 5698 (+261)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 811 ( +13) 15903 ( +222) 5754 ( +185)
Tue 12 May 2020 823 ( +12) 16116 ( +213) 5925 ( +172)
Wed 13 May 2020 835 ( +11) 16321 ( +205) 6083 ( +158)
Thu 14 May 2020 845 ( +11) 16518 ( +197) 6228 ( +145)
Fri 15 May 2020 855 ( +10) 16707 ( +189) 6360 ( +132)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 1833 (+3) 30305 (+54) 26600 (+200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 1837 ( +5) 30004 ( +17) 26341 ( +119)
Tue 12 May 2020 1841 ( +4) 30019 ( +15) 26445 ( +104)
Wed 13 May 2020 1844 ( +4) 30033 ( +13) 26536 ( +91)
Thu 14 May 2020 1847 ( +3) 30044 ( +11) 26615 ( +79)
Fri 15 May 2020 1850 ( +3) 30054 ( +10) 26683 ( +69)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 11123 (+467) 162699 (+6638) 64957 (+3272)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 11814 ( +663) 173611 ( +10050) 60364 ( +1296)
Tue 12 May 2020 12486 ( +672) 183887 ( +10276) 61537 ( +1173)
Wed 13 May 2020 13161 ( +676) 194336 ( +10449) 62594 ( +1057)
Thu 14 May 2020 13836 ( +675) 204900 ( +10564) 63542 ( +948)
Fri 15 May 2020 14504 ( +668) 215520 ( +10620) 64390 ( +847)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 6640 (+51) 107603 (+1383) 86143 (+1079)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 6581 ( +31) 100873 ( +262) 83590 ( +398)
Tue 12 May 2020 6610 ( +29) 101111 ( +238) 83950 ( +359)
Wed 13 May 2020 6637 ( +27) 101328 ( +217) 84274 ( +324)
Thu 14 May 2020 6661 ( +24) 101526 ( +198) 84566 ( +292)
Fri 15 May 2020 6683 ( +22) 101706 ( +180) 84828 ( +263)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.